2026-02-02
How I evaluate new markets
A big TAM on a slide is easy. Durable usage in a new context is the hard part—and the part most expansion decks skip because it is harder to sell.
I start with demand quality, not headline size. Growth that does not retain turns expensive—and models usually pretend it will not.
Then I look at operational reality: localization depth, support load, payments, trust. “We will sort it after launch” is a year burned.
Before shipping, I want one explicit bar: scale, iterate, or stop. Without it, teams optimize for motion instead of learning.